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mobilestance 2009 mobile predictions sm2Peer into Mobilestance’s Proprietary Crystal Ball!

Well it’s that time of year again… when pundits and publishers large and small exploit the slow end-of-year news cycle to recap the old and forecast the new.  Here at mobilestance it’s a extra-special time of year… as it was nearly one year ago when we formally “came out” of beta with our 2007 Recap piece and spammed it out to our publisher’s 3,000 +  email address book.  Ahh… memories!

This year, rather than spend the next thousand words rehashing what was undoubtedly the most exciting year in mobile since the advent of the crazy frog ringtone, we decided instead to take the easy way out and peer ahead to future…   casting our lot into a sea of like-minded posts from across the blogosphere.

So what will occur in 2009 at the intersection of Mobile and Marketing?  Will location become (as Dan @ Organic so eloquently put it in a recent Facebook status) “just another input”?  Will MMS finally become interoperable between carriers and ShortCodes, and finally emerge as a realistic marketing vehicle?  Will a wave of consolidation sweep the industry, as smaller independent mobile agencies, technology vendors and ad networks become casualties of the “great recession”?   Will newly legislated digital privacy-controls arrive just in time to kill the mobile web?  And of course the big question on everyone’s minds: Will mobile finally jump from the backwater of marketing budgets known as “emerging,” grow some legs, ditch the tail, and finally walk upon solid (budgetary) ground?

So read on then, fearless time shifters… and arm yourself for the ensuing complexities that will envelope our fledgling industry in the coming year!

Mobilestance’s Top 10 Mobile Marketing Predictions for 2009

  1. 2009 Will be the Year of Mobile.   After many false starts the Long Joke will finally end… and Mobile will finally have its moment in the sun.  With the rising popularity of smartphones; the lower cost of mobile data; and the pervasiveness of mobile broadband, internet and other “beyond voice” services, Mobile (with a capital “M”) will finally achieve critical mass in the US – and agencies, brands and business infrastructure providers alike will finally start paying attention with the purse strings.
  2. 2009 Won’t be the Year of Mobile.  What would a mobile marketing prognostication piece be without some conflicting signals?  Call it hedging my bets… but I just couldn’t resist punching up the contradiction that is the current state of mobile marketing.   Sure, everything I said in the previous ‘graph is dead on… the crystal ball is crystal clear on that.  But will that make 2009 “The Year of Mobile?” Hardly.  Sure, mobile has made some great strides of late in terms of its effectiveness as a marketing channel, and there is NO doubt that will come even farther, faster in 2009.  But sorry kids, it simply will not find its way out of the “emerging” bucket when it comes to budgeting.  No, the “Year of Mobile” can only be declared after we see dedicated “mobile” advertising, CRM and/or marketing budgets… or (at a minimum) a substantive breakout from a larger “digital” line… and with 2009 shaping up to the second coming of the “Flight to ROI” of 2002 (warning: pdf link) , we’ve probably got until 2010 until we can finally herald the end of the Long Joke. In the meantime there’s still plenty for Mobile Marketers to do – namely, hone our skills and prepare ourselves for when the money spigot really opens up in 2010.
  3. Mobile Search Comes of Age.   OK, enough with the levity… let’s get into some serious forecasting. If there’s one thing we’ve learned about mobile usage in ‘08, it’s that smartphones = search volume.  While previously a mere academic curiosity, this correlation will show real legs in ‘09, as legions of iPhoners, Crackberry Addicts and the like will continue take to mobile search like a longshoreman on a bender (read: heavy consumption punctuated with colorful language) .  We’ve already witnessed both Google and Yahoo fine tuning their mobile search products – albeit in very different ways – and in 2009 we will see the beginnings of a real business emerge in this sector. Watch for the leading engines and agencies make a major mobile plays in ‘09, as both will look to the sector to help sustain revenue growth and counter the “leveling off” of the (once interstellar) growth trajectory of “traditional” online paid search and/or SEM – as both (especially the former) begin to show early signs of maturation.
  4. Mobile Video (finally) Gets Interesting.  Along with search, the other interesting affect that comes with increased smartphone penetration is increased consumption of mobile video.  I say “interesting” as in “somewhat viable” or “worth experimenting with”- which should not be interpreted as “it’s going to explode” (or even that I’m reasonably bullish on the channel).  No… while I’ve been a mobile video hater for many years for reasons too numerous to count, we’ll see enough scale in 2009 to merit some testing… as after all, leveraging the moving image remains (arguably) the most effective method by which one can influence consumer behavior.
  5. Apples Grow on Trees… While Android Picks up Steam.  A no brainer that simply cannot be ignored… and the importance of which cannot be overstated.  Most likely, Apple will successfully keep its momentum into ‘09 by rolling out popular, yet evolutionary iPhone models (think new colors and modestly increased storage capacity/performance, rather than new form factors or revolutionary new features or price points).  Android will likely see a bigger increase in Mobile OS share (albeit from a smaller base) than Apple, as Samsung (Spring) and Motorola (Fall) roll out hot new handsets utilizing the Open Source mobile OS.  And speaking of Open Source, it will be interesting to see if the (reasonably) open Android starts “out innovating” Apple’s proprietary mobile OS when it comes to features and applications.  As it is we’re still waiting for Google to integrate a working commerce model (safe money is on Google Checkout… duh!)  into the Android Marketplace so that developers will have an easier time charging consumers for applications (expected Spring, 2009) – so it might be awhile before developers truly embrace Android as tightly as they have with the iPhone SDK.  Our prediction:  in 2009 Android will become the “hip incubator” for mobile application and/or OS innovation… with Apple and/or independent iPhone developers skimming the cream and co-opting the most interesting ideas of the bunch.
  6. Biggest Losers of 2008: Motorola, Palm and Sprint Stay Alive.  Notable for their ability to keep breathing, the “Crap Pack” of ‘08 will not kick the bucket as so many are predicting.  Sprint will slowly turn the corner in ‘09 under Dan Hesse’s steady hand (is it us, or is anyone else getting a “Fred Thompson” vibe from his gently reassuring, speak-directly-into-the-camera series of commercials?), making incremental customer support improvements and leaning on that “Clearwire Thing” to leapfrog ahead in the bandwidth arms race (see “Wi-Max Casts Wide Shadow” below for more on this).  The great recession saved Motorola’s Wireless business, as the venerable Schamburg, Illinois red ink factory likely found no suitable suitors.  Now the company is forced to do what it does best… crank out a hit product to save the company – which we believe we’ll see in the form of a swank Android handset sometime late next year.  Until then Moto will occupy itself by doing the other things it does best: bleeding market share and taking on further debt… which brings us to our last lovable looser, Palm.  The fact that Elevation Partners decided to invest $100MM to keep Palm afloat just last month proves that there’s somebody out there for everybody… no matter how unsightly, aged, infirm or otherwise unappealing.  Seriously, we’re not entirely sure know how much lifespan $100MM buys Palm, but we’re betting 18 months, at best.
  7. Cash Poor Mobile Start-ups Get Snapped Up by Web, Traditional Media Players.  Another obvious one that needed to be said: the credit crunch / recession combo will start claiming casualties among the most vulnerable in the mobile sector, while traditional media giants and other web firms lacking mobile chops go bargain hunting.  Specifically, the time might be right for WPP’s 24/7 RealMedia to formally acquire one of their partner mobile ad networks (such as JumpTap or Millennial), should the opportunity present itself.  On the Cable side both Comcast and Time Warner have already made big bets on wireless with their Clearwire investments… yet neither have much else to leverage here in the form of inventory of other mobile-ready assets. A mobile video acquisition for each of these players on the order of a Rhythm NewMedia or Transpera might just be in the cards.
  8. WiMax Casts Wide Shadow.  While 2008 was all Apple and Google, newly-formed Clearwire (not to be confused with the “old” Clearwire, which had the same management yet different investors – a confusing situation that deserves a dedicated posting of its own) quietly rolled out what we believe to be the first real mobile broadband network in the US… (OK, well in Baltmore, MD – but heck, it’s a start!).  As Clearwire partner Sprint Wireless brings new WiMax hardware to market, and  the high speed service rolls into new markets like Portland and Chicago in 2009, look to Verizon Wireless and AT&T to fall all over themselves to attempt to bring their competitive 4G “LTE” (Long Term Evolution)  product to market by the end of the year.  It’s a moot point if Clearwire ever really rolls out a national WiMax network, or instead (like many are predicting) runs out of cash sometime in 2009 (prediction: cash-laden Clearwire partners Intel and Google will pony up an additional round of investment in the network while cash strapped partners Comcast and Time Warner sit this round out – slowing, but ultimately sustaining, Clearwire’s national rollout) what matters most is that Clearwire and WiMax is giving the industry a huge kick in the pants… and with this we’ll finally get the true mobile broadband experience we’ve all been waiting for.  Cue the brass band!
  9. MMS Gets its Act Together (Just in Time to Become Totally Irrelevant).   It’s no secret that MMS never really caught on with the public… and even when the carriers got their act together in 2006 and brought cross-carrier MMS interoperability online, the bloom was already nearly off the rose, as it were.  Marketing applications remained uber-niche, as lack MMS support for cross-carrier short codes left brands with two, equally unappealing options (e.g. the use of either a ten digit phone number or an email address in the primary Call-to-Action).   Still, while some consumers are giving the “Most Morbid Service” a second chance, the last nail in the coffin may have come from Apple, when it shafted the technology by not supporting it on the iPhone.   Now it seems the CSCA , along with their strong-armed cousin, NeuStar, are working with the US carriers to bring MMS support to intercarrer (common) ShortCodes… which, if achieved, would greatly expand the effectiveness of the channel as a marketing medium.  The question is, will this work be completed before the technology becomes altogether irrelevant?  Perhaps… although no one (including us) is betting on it.
  10. Application “Bubble” Doesn’t Burst… Yet.   A minor one, but just squeaks into our Top 10 (take that, “Privacy Concerns!”).   First, in order to predict that a bubble won’t burst, you need to prove the existance of a bubble.  Case in point: iFart (point proven!).  Now just when will the “App Bubble” burst?  Well, it would seem that in order to “burst”, the bubble would first need to achieve maximum volume, which won’t happen until iPhone and similar “ReallySmartPhones(TM)” achieve critical mass (we’re thinking 15-20% penetration) – and that’s not happening for at least a year or two – even in the rosiest of scenarios.  Still, for all the whooplaa around “+300MM iPhone app downloads in the first six months of app store,” some have acutely pointed out that the iPhone app growth curve has already started to flatten out.  That said… we’re likely to see a whole new crop of iFarts-like hits in 2009 – and needless to say Mobilestance awaits on baited breath.

Well folks… there you have it – our top 10 predictions for 2009.  Feel free to leave a comment if you feel we’ve missed something… or if you just want to throw some gasoline on the fire… and check back with us throughout the year as we continue to chronicle this thing we call Mobile.

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google-mobile-logo-copy.jpg Google’s Newfound Strategic Advantage in US 4G Market Goes Largely Overlooked.

While coverage of last week’s WiMax Mega-Deal largely focused on how the new venture would affect Sprint, Clearwire, and its largest investors (Comcast and Intel), there was strangely little attention payed to the tremendous up-side Google stands to reap from its relatively minor investment of “only” $500 million (as compared to Comcast’s $1.05 billion, Intel’s $1 billion and Time Warner’s $550 million investments).

With little fanfare, the WSJ reported that “Google will become the preferred software developer on the WiMax network, meaning its search service would be the default on new mobile devices.” Additionally, Sprint “agreed to put Google’s mobile operating system, Android, in some Sprint phones.” While the second point is not that surprising (Sprint, as well as Intel, are both members of the Android-focused Open Handset Alliance), the first point may have tremendous impact on the long term landscape of the US mobile search market.

Historically, the major US carriers have been reluctant to grant Google access to their customers, resulting in the search giant’s well-documented difficulties in penetrating the domestic on deck Mobile Search market. Now, as WiMax is likely years ahead of competing domestic 4G technologies such as LTE, Google sits atop a de facto mobile search monopoly in the US wireless broadband space (3G services, while a significant improvement from their predecessors, can hardly be deemed a true “broadband” product experience).

This is a tremendous strategic advantage that may extend beyond mobile search into other highly lucrative areas such as mapping, email, and perhaps event streaming video (YouTube), depending on what Google’s position as the venture’s “preferred software developer” ultimately means. True, consumers will likley be free to navigate to and/or download competitive services from the likes of Yahoo!, MSN and even IAC, but we all know that the majority of users will be content using the default services preloaded on the device.

Google’s advantageous position is further enhanced by the venture’s aggressive cable system partners (Comcast, Time Warner and Bright House), who view the platform as the ultimate response to the “quad-play” service bundles currently offered by Verizon FIOS and AT&T U-verse. The cable companies are locked in a no-holds-barred, block-by-block, all out war with the telcos, and no one should doubt the MSO’s willingness to fiercely market their advantage in wireless broadband. Google, of course, will profoundly benefit from these marketing efforts.

All told, the real value of Google’s first mover advantage in the domestic 4G space will be their opportunity to define their mobile brand in the best of environments, while Yahoo! and company must more or less wait for AT&T and Verizon Wireless to roll out their LTE networks – content with their standard 3G-based services that will no doubt seem primitive in comparison to Google’s souped-up WiMax products.

ftc-beyond-voice-2.jpgFive Year Old Case Studies, Babbling Activists, Sales Pitches and a Sneak Peek at What’s Coming Down the Regulatory Pipe.

Washington at its Worst?

By now many of you may have caught the occasional blurb / sound bite from this week’s Federal Trade Commission “Town Hall” on Mobile Marketing entitled “Beyond Voice: Mapping the Mobile Marketplace.” What you probably haven’t been exposed to is the unique combination of lunacy, tedium and righteous indignation that filled much of the event.

Luckily our hyperbureaucratic friends sought fit to publish complete online transcripts of the proceedings for those either unable or (more likely) unwilling to attend the two day event.

What’s this? You say you don’t have the time or the patients to read through the reams upon reams of “thoughts” relating to our industry’s regulatory future? Well fear not! Mobilestance.com has got you covered!

So sit back, relax, and learn of “The Shocking Truth” of what occurred at the FTC “Town Hall” on Mobile Marketing (part one in a special two part series).

May 6th
9:00 – 11:00 (AM EST)

Welcome and Introductory Remarks
Commissioner Jon Leibowitz, Federal Trade Commission

Content and Commentary

Jon Leibowitz, Commissioner of the Federal Trade Commission kicks things off with some levity in the form of a video clip featuring the world’s first mobile phone (“unveiled right here in Washington D.C. a few blocks away”, the clip is of Maxwell Smart’s famous “Shoe Phone”). From there he starts with familiar stats on mobile voice and data usage in the US, but then quickly transitions into the actual purpose of the “Town Hall” (we’ve put Town Hall in quotes because lets face it, if you’re going to have a “town hall” in the “township” of Washington, D.C., and its being run by a US Gov’t regulatory body… call it what it really is: A hearing).

Leibowitz runs down a short list of “a host of [mobile marketing] consumer protection challenges” (read: things he aims to regulate), setting the tone of the two day proceedings:

  • Disclosure issues. Do consumers understand what advertisers are selling and how much it costs? Mobile devices make disclosures even tougher. How can a marketer explain key terms and conditions on a screen the size of a small Post-It?
  • Mobile advertising itself. Recent surveys have found that most consumers are annoyed by it (What? Advertising is annoying? Alert the media!)
  • Spam. Unwanted and sometimes offensive content… Text Spam invades your time, your privacy and your wallet. (Agreed)
  • Location Based Services. The sense of big brother or ex-boyfriend knows where you are at any given moment really raises troubling issues about government access, physical safety and personal privacy.
  • Location Based Mobile Marketing. Does America really need cell phones with ads flashing like lights in time square, do we want our PDAs turning into turning into digital pocket bill board? Personally I worry about clutter. (Leibowitz is really pushing the envelope here… sure, these are presented as his personal opinions, but when presented in this context it gives the impression that the FTC is angling to regulate what is and isn’t “tasteful.” I appreciate the sentiment, but he should really keep his aesthetic concerns to himself. Does he somehow think FTC stands for “Federal Tastemaker Commission?)
  • The Kids. A mobile phone that gives them access makes them easy pray for aggressive marketers… and we need to consider whether additional protection for kids and children are warranted.

Then, to make sure everyone in the room doesn’t forget who’s in charge or what’s at stake in this so-called “town hall”, Leibowitz drops the widely-reported word bomb on the room: “We strongly believe, as many of you know, in self-regulation – but we are also going to police the wireless space.” Make no mistake… Leibowitz is on the beat, nightstick a-swingin! “Our agency has a long history of studying new technologies and the consumer protection and competition issues that are embedded within these new technologies,” He continued, “And we have a long history of working with our sister agency the FCC when consumer protection concerns arise in the Telecom context.” At this point you can almost smell the tension in the room. Finally, he takes it up a notch by pointing out what’s at stake: “You can take our example of our work with them on do-not-call on Spam.”

And there it is… he might as well have just said “We are your overlords, you private-sector pawns. Kneel before us and grovel at our regulatory feet. ” And grovel they did… for the next two days, in fact.

Session 1: The Mobile Marketplace — What, How, and Who
“This session will provide an introduction to the role of mobile commerce, beyond traditional voice service, in today’s society. This overview will include a discussion of demographics, consumer habits, and popular and anticipated uses of mobile services within the United States. It will also refer to developments in mobile commerce outside the United States.”

Participants

  • Evan Neufeld, VP & Senior Analyst, M:Metrics
  • Steve Smith, Media Critic, Mediapost and Access Intelligence

Moderator

  • Ruth Yodaiken, Staff Attorney, FTC Division of Marketing Practices

Content and Commentary

A whirlwind of stats, graphs, charts, definitions, et cetera on US habit and usage of mobile data services. Not a bad data set here (note: get your free research data in this section’s transcript, it’s a fairly comprehensive presentation). At the end of this session everyone is supposed to be comfortable with the alphabet soup of mobile terminology that will pervade the remainder of the talks. I suspect anyone not in the industry is trying their best to keep up… but finding these two a little manic in their rapid shifts from topic to topic.

Here’s a taste of the kind of language and topic jumping that was bound to throw the room: “Someone has a 3G phone for example is 1.4X likely to do social networking, 1.5X to browse, et cetera. Smart phones, similar. Though only 6.2% of the total US device market at this point, this is also another where you see tremendous increase in usage, with 4X and 3X for social networking browsing and music and video. Where this all ties in is the iPhone. Everybody talks about the iPhone. [I'm] not necessarily a huckster for apple per se. [In] my mind the iphone is an example of a phone with a good interface for browsing. Some say the secret is the interface, the URL doesn’t suck, there’s kind of what the standard is. So it’s less about the iPhone is the device and interfaces are catching up with consumers. When you do that the usage is tremendous.” No disrespect to Evan (whom I actually agree with on all of these points), but does anybody think that the room is getting all of this? I’d bet dollars to donuts that the good folks at the FTC aren’t among those nodding their heads.

Session 2: Mobile Messaging — Unsolicited, Premium, and Interactive Messaging
“This session will provide an overview of text/SMS (Short Message Service) and MMS (Multimedia Messaging Service) messaging, introduce innovations, and highlight billing concerns.” [Transcript]

Participants

  • Alykhan Govani, Head of BD, MX Telecom
  • William Haselden, Assistant Attorney General, State of Florida
  • Dorian Porter, CEO / Founder, Mozes, Inc.
  • Leigh Schachter, Senior Litigation Counsel, Verizon Wireless

Moderator

  • Lisa Hone, Assistant Director, FTC Division of Marketing Practices

Content and Commentary
A lot more talk educating the room on the consumer benefits of mobile marketing balanced with the need for responsible practices (opt-in only, full disclosure, yadda yadda). A lot of the recursive, meandering language that is familiar to anyone who has attended a panel session at CTIA in the last five years… a tactical example here (say, MMS blogging), a brand reference there (say, Papa John’s), a consumer confusion point tossed in (fear of spam, cost, or just not knowing what a short code is), a statistical reference followed by a rapid-fire strategy statement (e.g. “it’s all about the mobile context”) – and then just repeat with different phrases. Sorry if that comes across as a little cynical, but there’s only so much of this one person can be exposed to before the sarcasm kicks in. Mozes then goes into a txt2screen demo, and walks us through what could well be their sales presentation (wait, this is CTIA!).

Next up is William Haselden, the Florida Assistant Attorney General, who walks the room through some of the very worst examples of bait-and-switch, “free ringtone” (I mean, $9.99 per month) marketing. Make no mistake, the Florida Attorney General’s office has a well earned reputation for their willingness to prosecute consumer trade practice offenders – and he’s got the room’s attention. His examples of Florida’s idea of regulating the space are highly detailed, and many are quite reasonable… so (for example) that when people click on a box that says “nine ninety nine” that they know that they are paying “$9.99 per month,” etc. Some are extremely granular regulatory suggestions, right down to color contrast restrictions so that prices can’t be hidden in (nearly) the same color as the page background (but who is going to enforce all of this? Ah… a bigger budget for the Florida Attorney General’s office, perhaps?).

Leigh Schachter, Senior Litigation Counsel for Verizon Wireless, finishes off the session with a talk on unsolicited SMS messages. She opens with what was basically a fairly comprehensive 101 on “how to execute a spam SMS campaign,” including instructions on how one would send unsolicited sequential text messages to handsets via email gateways on a carrier by carrier basis. Kind of reminds me of the Tyrone Biggums Drug Awareness bit on Chappell. Everything a young spammer might need to get started… Kids, get out your pencils! Her comments on the lengths Verizon goes through to thwart these efforts are impressive (from filters to prosecution), but ultimately the audience is left with the sobering reality that this is an issue (like email spam) that just isn’t going away anytime soon. It’s a real credit to the carriers that most mobile users aren’t even aware that SMS spam is even an issue at all. Go get ‘em, VZW!

May 6th
11:15 – 12:30 (PM EST)

Session 3: Mobile Applications — Games, Widgets, and More
“This session will offer a series of demonstrations about the many possibilities offered by modern mobile devices, which are barely recognizable from the cell phones of yesterday. Industry panelists will discuss how different mobile ecosystems open up the world of applications, from games to social networking.” [Transcript]

Participants

  • Steve Boom, SVP of Connected Life, Yahoo! Inc
  • Andrew Elliott, Director of Services and Software, North America Go-to-Market, Nokia
  • Thomas C. Ford, Global Market Strategist, Consumer Products, Opera Software
  • Rich Miner, General Manager of Mobile Platforms, Google Inc.

Moderator

  • Ruth Todaiken, Staff Attorney, FTC Division of Marketing Practices.

Content and Commentary

Review of the development and distribution challenges facing downloadable and web-based mobile applications. Differing device, OS standards, and of the carrier walled gardens. Standard Yahoo GO demos and the like, and Google’s preference for openness as the solution for many of these market barriers (including, appropriately, security – using the old “false sense of security that comes with high walls” argument that Microsoft has basically proved to the world with their closed – and thus highly insecure – Windows and Internet Explorer products). Well played, Google.

May 6th
1:45 – 3:00 (PM EST)

Session 4: Location-Based Services
“This session will offer a roundtable discussion of the emerging world of location-based services, through carrier-controlled environments or other mechanisms. This discussion will include reference to broadcasting commercial appeals and coupons to phones. There will be a discussion of disclosures about tracking and consumer control of information.” [Transcript]

Participants

  • Michael F. Altschul, SVP and General Counsel, CTIA
  • Tony Bernard, VP of Operations, Useful Networks
  • Alissa Cooper, Chief Computer Scientist, Center for Democracy and Technology
  • Tim Lordan, Executive Director, Internet Education Foundation
  • Fran Maier, Executive Director and President, TRUSTe

Moderators

  • Rick Quaresima, Assistant Director, FTC Division of Advertising Practices
  • Peder Magee, Senior Attorney, FTC Division of Privacy and Identity Protection

Content and Commentary

Overview of the state of the LBS market, GPS and WiFi triangulation techniques, and various approaches to E-911 compliance. The CTIA has provided a very comprehensive breakdown of each of the US carrier’s LBS service offerings followed by their recommendations for industry Best Practices (all in all quite a good read). You can download here (warning: .pdf link). Many of their best practices hinge on the fact that current statutes governing this area deem the account holder, rather than the actual user, the party with right to set LBS data sharing privileges (child safety comes up often). Other areas of concern touch on disclosure (they recommend a lot), the need for securing the consumer’s explicit permission (opt-in) prior to engaging in location based marketing (nothing shocking here) and length (if any) of data retention (what he cleverly refers to as the “first cousin of security”).

Next up is the Center for Democracy and Technology, “a 501C 3 non-profit public policy organization dedicated to promoting democratic values and protecting constitutional liberties on the open Internet, that includes the mobile Internet and other mobile media.” As a watchdog group for consumer privacy in the digital age (these guys are the behavioral targeting industry’s worst nightmare), the CDT has plenty to say about LBS, including proposing their own set of standards they’ve published under the rather alarmist moniker, “Who’s Watching You Now?” (warning: .pdf link). It seems that many of their arguments stretch the concept of the individual’s expectation of privacy to the limits of rational thought… that because people “walking down the street and by the coffee shop don’t necessarily expect an ad for a latte to pop up on their phone” somehow means location based ads are 100% inappropriate (sidebar: when will folks tire of the “walking by Starbucks and get an ad on your phone” example? Don’t these people understand that having your business on every other street corner pretty much negates the need for location based marketing in the first place!) . CDT then veers way off topic in a lengthy diatribe exploring the dangers of government access issues to location data. I say “off topic” because this is a “mobile marketplace” discussion, after all – not an open discussion of all things related to privacy. Does the CDT think that somehow the Government is going to purchase this data? Seriously, this kind of agenda mongering wastes everyone’s time, and does little to advance their cause.

Overall, issues of consent, recurring notification, “approved LBS services” (complete with a “seal of approval”), child safety, and “where to draw the line?” (zip code? 300 meters? 2 meters) dominate the discussion. If it wasn’t obvious before today, it’s clear by the length and number of questions from the audience that LBS lies at the heart of consumer privacy concerns as it relates to mobile. Nothing else comes remotely close.

 

May 6th
3:15 – 5:00 (PM EST)

Session 5: Mobile Advertising and Marketing – The Transition and Adaptation to Mobile Devices and the Small Screen
“This session will examine the general transition of advertising and marketing to mobile devices, discuss mobile-specific advertising campaigns, and address issues such as the targeting of advertising in the mobile space and strategies that advertisers use to adjust to small mobile screens.” [Transcript]

Participants

  • Jean Berberich, Digital Marketing Innovation Manager – Mobile, P&G
  • Jeff Chester, Executive Director, Center for Digital Democracy
  • Susan Duarte, Counsel for Marketing Practices, Sprint Nextel Corp
  • Jim Durrell, Director of Product Management, Greystripe
  • Gene Keenan, VP of Mobile Services, Isobar Global
  • Hairong Li, Associate Professor of Advertising, Michigan State University
  • Marci Troutman, Founder, Siteminis, Inc.

Moderators

  • Mary K. Engle, Associate Director, FTC Division of Advertising Practices
  • Jamie Trilling, Staff Attorney, FTC Division of Advertising Practices

Content and Commentary

The grand finale for day one sported an all-star panel that didn’t fail to disappoint. The session started with an examination of Asian markets as (presumably) a precursor for what we can expect here in the US in the next few years (yes, yes – we all know the flaws that model presents, but at least it presents a refreshingly optimistic future of the US mobile marketing space!). This followed by more research (winner of the “most bullish” award was an M:Metrics stat claiming that 98% of US 18 to 24-year-olds own a mobile phone, with 92% using SMS. While we all agree that 18-24 is the “sweet spot” in mobile here in the US, 98% and 92% are pretty big numbers. I believe that’s even higher than Cable TV’s reach in the same demo). Ogilvy is talking about their interactive Time’s Square billboard for Dove. That one never gets old. P&G is talking about their Cover Girl WAP site. Ditto.

Luckily the FTC thought ahead and brought in Jeff Chester from the Center for Digital Democracy to stir the pot a bit. He was certainly in his element up there, mixing it up with all those agency, network and advertiser-types (How dare they try to measure the millions and millions of dollars they spend on advertising every year?! For shame!). He starts off on relatively safe ground in raising non controversial issues of childhood obesity and advertising, but then quickly lapses into his war against all forms of data-driven marketing (hey Jeff, how would you like to pay $18 for a tube of toothpaste? Keep it up and you just might find out!). On a personal note, Bob Walczak has to be pleased that his “MoPhap” was listed among his usual suspects of “rogue marketers” (read: behavioral targeted ad networks). Too bad Jeff didn’t get the memo that as of several months ago MoPhap underwent a much needed rebranding effort and is now known as Ringleader Digital.

Like many of the day’s earlier activists, Jeff did himself a disservice by bringing unrelated matters into the conversation. Take this example: “We are at a point of — I think almost unprecedented anxiety in the American confidence we have problems related to the current mortgage crisis, certainly, and gas and oil prices have gone up, we don’t want to have a system, particularly tied to youth, that is running amuck because it’s tracking everything we’re doing encouraging this kind of impulse buying.” Somehow data-driven marketing tactics are related to the current crisis in the credit markets? I mean, I realize that everything is connected, you know, in the Daoist, George Harrison-type sense… but can we all agree that we don’t want our industry regs influenced by such obvious windmill-tilters?

Stay tune’d for the second half of this disturbing, yet deeply entertaining odyssey!

ctia-vegas.jpgHonoring The Very Best in CTIA Show Floor Swag!

At first glance it might seem odd to honor those little branded trinkets given out on the show floor – hardly worth one’s time to pick up – let alone to honor with an award. Yet, the creation of a truly quality show floor giveaway is a highly challenging task – a process laden with strict, yet unwritten rules that one must follow if one is to succeed in this oft derided genera.

First, there is the cold Swagonomic reality that these artists must face: Swag items are usually confined to the “less than $3 per item” category – not exactly the hottest area of the catalog. Second, conference swag must reinforce several (often competing) brand messages: there is the company’s brand itself, the industry the company is in, as well as the city where the conference is being held. Then there is the question of utility: Will the prospect find the item useful? Finally, there is the need to stand out and get noticed – in a conference otherwise awash in a sea of like-minded exhibitors.

Considering all this, as well as a final factor dubbed “industry timeliness” (i.e. how well does the Swag item capture “the moment” of the wireless industry), we’ve scoured the show floor at the CTIA Wireless conference in Las Vegas to bring you the best of the best.

Therefore, without further delay, Mobilestance.com is proud to present the winners of “The Swaggies” – our homage to those seemingly unimportant conference freebies and a heretofore neglected form of commercial artistry that may very well portend the direction of our fledgling industry.

Note: Hi-res images of all winning Swag items can be found at bottom of the post.

  • Winner, Best Writing Implement: Call2Recycle. Very few areas of the show floor are as competitive as the “Writing Implement” category. Nearly every other company at the conference offered attendees endless varieties of branded pens, pencils, markers and crayons. That said, Call2Recycle, a non-profit ” promot[ing the] recycling of nickel-cadmium (Ni-Cd) rechargeable batteries,” successfully captured the palpable “green vibe” of the conference by crafting a pair of cleverly designed writing utensils created entirely of recycled materials (click here to view). The pen sports a smartly crafted cardboard body complete with wooden “pocket-protector”-style clip, while the pencil was created entirely from recycled currency.
  • Winner, Best Mobile Accessory: Reagan Wireless. Until now this category has been a non-starter… plagued with inane creations such as the ubiquitous mobile “screen wiper” and equally ill advised “mobile caddy.” Padded cell covers and other trinkets are of equal value, with the litany of handset models in circulation it becomes next to impossible to create something of mass interest. Samsung (as they have done in previous shows) was offering free batteries and other valuable items to visitors owning their handsets – the catch was that you had to produce a Samsung handset as proof of ownership. In a move seemingly pulled from the corner of Mott and Canal, the upstarts at Reagan Wireless took this basic concept and turned it up a notch – offering free Blackberry and Motorola cases and chargers to anyone who dared reach into a pair of large, unmarked cardboard boxes – no questions asked (see image here).
  • Winner, Best Plush Toy: NSTL appRelay. The guys at National Software Testing Labs may hate bugs, but they’ve made this one famous… bringing him/her to show after show and no doubt in front of the children of many a conference-worn, wireless exec. It’s been rumored that the NSTL bug (and flyswatter companion) have their own Facebook page and have been spotted throughout the world, posing in front of scenic landmarks. No sightings yet of the alleged Facebook profile – but anyone who finds it please leave a comment and pass it along.
  • Winner, Best Travel Accessory: Acme Packet / Novara (tie). Branded travel items are a popular category, as companies vie to meet the needs of weary, far-from-home conference attendees. While both winners sported a nearly identical “Luggage Spotter” giveaway (all that differed was the logo and the color), the item is so useful that it could not be ignored. Not only does it make it easy to find your bag in the airport luggage carousel when wrapped around a bag’s handle or strap, but it doubles as an extra layer of padding and holds a business card to boot.
  • Winner, Best Multi Tool: Talley Communications. An offshoot of the “Travel Accessory” category, the rising popularity of branded, MacGyver-esque contraptions at CTIA warranted the creation of a dedicated award. Talley left little on the cutting room floor in selecting this rugged behemoth. The tool offers office workers the option of stapling, taping and labeling… all from the convenience of one compact (and branded device). Doubles as a weapon of last resort if [insert office cliche here]…
  • Winner, Best Koozie: Opera Software. While usually this conference mainstay stays stubbornly on the more blue collar side of the conference, the geeks at Opera took one back for the Tri-Lams as they captured the coveted “Best Koozie in Show” award with their (now classic) black, fou-leather rocker-style “Opera” koozie. See ya in paradise, Booger.
  • Winner, Best Incorporation of Local Flavor: Openwave. After rifling through countless branded poker chips engraved with such witty slogans as “You can bet on [company X],” we finally came across this little gem – a stylish, mock-silver money clip. If only I had something to put in it after leaving Sin City…
  • Winner, Totally Useless Objects, Lit: DRT. There’s a special place in our hearts for totally useless objects that light up and sparkle – and DRT made sure we didn’t leave empty handed. This lava lamp-looking doodad shines multi-colored light through a heated liquid, which moves about suspended metal particles that scatter the light every which way. All in it’s less than three inches high, and carry-on friendly with less than 3.4 oz of liquid. Such pretty, pretty colors…

food3-copy.jpgWinner, Best in Show; Food & Beverage: Yahoo! Mobile. Congratulations to Yahoo! Mobile for capturing the fiercely competitive “Food and Beverage” category as well as our Best in Show award with their extravagant on-site Gelato parlor. The delicious treats, offered in twelve eye-popping varieties, were the hit of the show, and were just the thing to cool off with after a day spent sweating in the Las Vegas sun. The dessert successfully captured the oral fixation of this year’s show (read: the continuing evolution of voice recognition – get your minds out of the gutter!), and easily trumped the three varieties of smoothies offered at the AOL booth. Thanks to Ricky Montalvo at Yahoo! Studios for the photos.

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mobilestance world of WAPcraft warcraft GFXThis week was marked by an extraordinary series of high profile Mobile Web developments… which, when viewed in aggregate, were seen by many as evidence that the nascent channel has finally reached an inflection point.

All three major areas of the mobile web “ecosystem” (carriers, publishers and advertisers) announced significant site launches, partnerships and traffic milestones, including several blue-chip advertisers and content publishers such as American Airlines, YouTube, Yahoo!, NBC, ABC, A&E and the New York Times.

Despite these encouraging developments, several notable marketplace events served to point out the shortcomings of the emerging mobile web space, including a reminder of a glaring limitation of the mobile web from a metrics and reporting standpoint, as well as accounts of a public tirade involving nearly the entire mobile value chain – from one of the mobile industry’s more prominent (and animated) executives.

A busy week in the World of WAPcraft to be sure… here’s some of the major highlights:

  • Carriers. Last week’s most significant Mobile Web development came from AT&T Mobility, who announced a strategic alliance with Yahoo! whereby the internet giant will begin serving ads on the carrier’s “MEdia Net” mobile portal. Under the terms of the agreement, Yahoo! and AT&T will divide up the on-deck advertising inventory for sale and/or for internal use. Additionally, AT&T ’s yellowpages.com will now power local search on both AT&T’s Mobile and Wireline Web properties. AT&T has not yet announced when these changes will take affect.

    AT&T Mobility’s move follows earlier moves by Sprint and Verizon Wireless. Collectively, the three carriers represent approximately 78% of the US mobile market. T-Mobile, the last of the “big four” US carriers without an on-deck mobile advertising play, has tied up with Yahoo! to serve ads on its UK “Web’n'Walk”mobile portal. Clearly the announcement from AT&T Mobility would inhibit T-Mobile’s ability to expand their Yahoo! relationship here in the US.

  • Publishers. This week witnessed an abundance of mobile website launches and/or relaunches from many of the larger content providers. YouTube announced the launch of its new Mobile Web site (m.youtube.com), as well as a new J2ME application (supported on Nokia 6110, 6120, E65, N73, N95 and Sony Ericsson k800 and w880). NBC announced the launch of 40 new WAP sites (as well as 3 new mobile video channels), including dedicated mobile web sites for NBC programs such as 30 Rock, ER, Friday Night Lights and Saturday Night Live. Not to be outdone, ABC News announced that its mobile site (m.abcnews.com) would be providing “real time” US presidential election results, although Mobile Marketer reports that ABC refreshes its mobile website content [only] on an hourly basis.

    On the cable side, A&E Television announced the launch of mobile the A&E Network portal (mobile.aetv.com), as well as dedicated sites for The History Channel (mobile.history.com) and The Biography Channel (mobile.biography.com). The A&E mobile sites feature fairly standard mobile web fare, including “What’s on Tonight”, “Program Descriptions and Photos”, “Fan Polls and Trivia Games” and “Downloadable Wallpapers and Ring Tones.”

    Finally, moconews.net reported that the New York Times mobile website is now generating an average of 10MM page impressions per month, a 600% year-over-year traffic increase.

  • Advertisers. American Airlines announced the launch an extravagant new mobile web site that is sure to raise the bar for mobile websites in the airline category. The site utilizes a common URL approach (www.aa.com), which automatically redirects mobile users to device-appropriate site versions (although mobile users have the option of reverting to the full HTML site, an option that hopefully will soon become a standard feature on most mobile websites). Currently the AA.com mobile site features include the ability for users to “check in for a flight, view their itinerary, check schedules, check the status of their flights, get information on destinations, weather or airports and contact American Airlines.”

    Future AA.com mobile enhancements targeted for a Spring ‘08 launch include the ability for users to “book flights, change their reservations, view fare specials, request upgrades and enroll in” American’s AAdvantage loyalty program. Additionally, the carrier states that “many pages also will be viewable in Spanish.”

  • Criticism. UK SEO provider AccuraCast cast a spotlight on Google’s inability to effectively track conversions generated from AdWords Mobile. The challenge faced by Google is that its ability to track conversions relies on either Java script (embedded on a publisher’s page) or tracking cookies – technologies not supported by most (if not all, in the case of Java) mobile web browsers. To its credit, Google acknowledges its system’s shortcomings, noting that “conversion rate, cost-per-conversion, cost-per-transaction and value/click are adjusted to reflect only those sites from which we can track conversions.”

    In lighter news, this week at the AlwaysOn Media event in New York City Cyriac Roeding, SVP of CBS mobile, unleashed a public rant against the complexity and inherent dysfunction of the mobile ecosystem. Apparently no one was spared from Teutonic executive’s assault on the mobile industry; From the carriers (there’s too many of them! lack of technology standards! too many pricing options! too many service packages! poor marketing!) to the publishers and handset manufacturers (poor usability! content poorly organized!) and even the advertisers themselves! (they don’t understand mobile or the value it brings!). While attendees reported that Mr. Reoding’s “marketplace observations” were greeted with wild applause, mobilestance finds it ironic that the current Chairman of the Mobile Marketing Association Board of Directors would choose to publicly rebuke, ridicule and embarrass nearly all of the organization’s members.

Analysis: While development of the mobile web ecosystem seems to be accelerating, it remains to be seen if a critical mass has been achieved – both in terms of users – as well as content. Still, all the major players in the space (carriers, content publishers, and advertisers) are taking the necessary steps to advance the channel towards reaching the seemingly inevitable goal of mainstream use. That said, it is clear that several prominent hurdles (most notably usability issues such as UI and network speeds, as well as the inability to cookie most mobile devices) still stand in the way of large scale consumer adoption and commercial exploitation of the mobile web.

31849319-2-300-overview-11.gif Today at CES Yahoo! is planning on announcing that they are opening up their “Yahoo! Go” mobile application to third party developers, this according to the New York Times. The Times is reporting that MTV, eBay and MySpace have already created Yahoo! Go widgets that consumers can download either online or directly via the mobile application. Yahoo! Go has been ported to roughly 250 mobile devices, and comes preloaded on some phones made by Motorola, LG, Samsung and Nokia outside the US (domestic carriers force users to manually download and install the application prior to use, although this might change once device manufacturers start selling handsets directly to consumers).

Analysis: Yahoo!’s work on developing Go to a more mature platform is commendable. While the move does serve to further fragment the development environment for mobile (What, another new platform to write for? Better hire another developer!), the platform’s large (for mobile) install base of 250MM users worldwide will be attractive to major publishers and content brands (although some estimates confirm less than half of this base are actively using the application).

A no-brainer for Yahoo!, the move costs them little in oversight, while serving as a short-term defensive move against Google’s open Android platform. Ultimately the long term success of the play will hinge on the ease of developing third party widgets for Yahoo! Go, as well as any advantages that the development environment might afford (access to the address book? GPS data feed?). More on this as it develops.

mobilestance 2007 year in reviewThe slow news week after Christmas is notorious for the oft-derided “year in X” reports, but rather than take time exploring the value of such “Remembrance(s) of Things (less than a year) Past,” mobilestance.com would like to take the time to indulge in our own year end recap of the most notable US Mobile Marketing developments in 2007 (and yes, the illustration on the left depicts “Old Man 2007″ knowingly handing an iPhone to “Baby New Year 2008″).

And what a year 2007 has been. Between the flurry of VC and M&A activity, the reality of a declining global ringtone market and the re-orgs that followed, the explosion of ad supported business models, growth in consumer use of key mobile data services, notable marketplace exits, divestitures and bankruptcies, new entrants in the wireless space (yes, I’m talking about Apple here), and the aggressive moves on the part of the internet portals (most notably Google, but also Yahoo and even AOL and IAC), 2007 may yet be remembered as the year mobile finally “happened” -much to the delight of the Business 2.0 crowd.

After reviewing the list please take a second and weigh in on what you feel was the most important Mobile Marketing event of ’07 by participating in the poll at the end of the piece. Also, since 2007 was such a busy year no doubt there’s plenty more that could be added to this list… that said feel free to leave a comment if you’d like to add some additional insight or if you feel something crucial has been overlooked.

Thanks much… and now without further delay, mobilestance.com proudly presents “The 2007 US Mobile Marketing Game Changers.”

  1. Google Steps it up. Not content to merely sit on the sidelines and play by the rules set forth by the US carriers, the search giant spent much of 2007 re-writing the rules of the US wireless industry. With their conspicuous “open access” lobbying effort, leadership in the Open Handset Alliance, the launch of their open Android platform, and their plans to enter the upcoming 700 MHz US wireless spectrum auction has a legitimate player, Google has stirred the 2007 US wireless pot like no other single corporate entity. While it remains to be seen as what will ultimately come of its aggressive moves in the space (although it seems Google has single-handily forced the biggest hole to date in Verizon’s vaunted walled garden) , it is clear that Google is determined to usher in a far more flexible (read: marketer-friendly) US wireless marketplace… a market that will likely be a boon to innovative third party mobile application developers, hybridized business models, and – most importantly – accelerate consumer adoption of “beyond voice” mobile services.
  2. The Rise of MMS. 2007 was the year that US consumers finally got behind MMS in large numbers, exiting news for marketers not satisfied with the simple Joys of Text. In November of 2007 the MMA reported 33% of all US mobile phone users reporting monthly use of “Picture and/or Video Messaging” – that’s up dramatically from a paltry 16% in 2006. In the younger demographic segments the numbers are even more attractive, with monthly usage peaking in the 18-24 year old group at an astounding 55%. So what does this mean? Bottom line, now that MMS has reached critical mass in the US marketers are free to (finally) capitalize on the expanded interactive and multimedia prowess of the enhanced messaging channel. The possibilities are endless… everything from moblogging, MMS-based couponing, photo contests, video alerts, pattern recognition, html email-type CRM communications and so much more. Sure, there’s nothing actually new with all of these tactics… but now we’re talking about the difference between MMS-based marketing campaigns with real ROI back to the brands, versus the eternally frustrating”test campaigns” of earlier years.
  3. Enter the iPhone. So much has has already been written on the sleek Apple device that it’s become extremely difficult to assess its actual impact. Never mind the recent eye-popping stats released on the iPhone’s disproportionate share of the overall browsing universe, or recent efforts (while fascinating and seemingly quite worthwhile) by marketers to leverage the device to deliver hypertargeted messaging to the forward-leaning, early-adopting, free-with-the-dollars demographic. No, the real impact of the device lies in it serving as a “showroom model” for the full potential of the mobile marketing channel. An independently sold (from the carriers, mind you) Wi-Fi/GSM hybrid with a beautiful touch screen, snappy web browser (snail-like AT&T EDGE network speeds notwithstanding), usable video, music and photo management options… and coming in February, a public SDK for the development of third party applications and a (rumored) flash plug-in for the device’s browser – a first for the “mobile” web (and hey just because it’s the holidays let’s not get into a debate on what is or is not actually the “mobile” web – for now let’s just go with it). It’s amazing how quickly the standard for what is “possible” in mobile has been raised since the release of the iPhone less than six months ago – and how what once passed for cutting edge has so rapidly become not simply dated, but altogether irrelevant. More than any other event in the mobile marketing industry’s short history, the entrance of the iPhone has fueled a frenzy of interest in the space – both from brands and agencies alike. The motivational equivalent of the ‘69 moon landing… with all the junior rocket scientists that followed.
  4. Mobile Advertising Comes of Age. After a few years of luring in the shadows of the mobile marketing industry, the mobile advertising market became incredibly hot in 2007, punctuated by major acquisitions by leading interactive and mobile firms, as well as a dizzying array of venture-fueled deals in the space. The two leaders in the nascent mobile advertising industry, Third Screen Media and Enpocket were promptly acquired by AOL and Nokia, respectively – while Microsoft, once again outmaneuvered in the interactive ad firm acquisitions game, was forced to settle on European Mobile Ad Firm Screen Tonic. The remaining independent mobile ad firms were also firing on all cylinders, with Amobee, Millennial Media, AdMob, Greystripe, and Quattro Wireless all expanding on the heels of fresh investment capital raised in ‘07. Newspaper giant Gannett made a major investment in SMS-based ad firm 4INFO, while Google and Yahoo played a bit of small ball (we can gut Google a little slack here… they’ve been busy rewriting the rulebook for much of the rest of the mobile industry after all). The former taking the much anticipated step of expanding AdSense into the “mobile web,” while Yahoo! announced mobile publisher services and plans to integrate mobile inventory into their Panama ad platform. As for the internet display advertising giants, DoubleClick (soon to be Google) launched their publisher platform, while aQuantitative’s Accipiter Unit (now owned by Microsoft) tied up with NYC-based MoPhap to bring mobile capabilities to their publisher-side interactive ad serving platform. Add daily press releases by major web publishers bringing mobile inventory online, and I think you get this picture: 2007 was the year that nearly everybody in the space simply had to have a mobile adverting play. Sure, there was a bit of herd mentality going on, and no doubt we’re in for… shall we say, a bit of a “correction” in the coming years (this kind of activity surely cannot be sustained indefinitely) – but regardless, the business and technological systems are now in place for brands to reach out and communicate directly with consumers via the mobile handset. Keep in mind this is very different than previous (primarily SMS-based) mobile marketing activity that simply leveraged mobile as a direct response channel activating other forms of media such as television, print and radio (as so eloquently described by Jeff Minsky of OMD in a then accurate but increasingly outdated assessment of the channel – sorry Jeff, but I couldn’t take that one lying down!). Using mobile as a broadcast-type media may be a bit controversial to some, but as long as there remains checks and balances with regard to consumer privacy (yes, the carriers seem to be pulling their weight here, although some needed to be prodded a bit on the subject) an effective system of reaching consumers via their mobile devices should flourish in the months, years and decades to come.

 

Reader Poll – 2007 Mobile Marketing Game Changers

What was the biggest game changer in ‘07?

  • Enter the iPhone (50%, 24 Votes)
  • Mobile Advertising Comes of Age (33%, 16 Votes)
  • None of the Above (10%, 5 Votes)
  • Google Steps it Up (4%, 2 Votes)
  • The Rise of MMS (2%, 1 Votes)

Total Voters: 48

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Bloomberg.com published a piece today about how the carriers are keeping the cost of mobile advertising artificially high due to carrier revenue share. Google, Yahoo and Microsoft are apparently upset that they must pay the carriers a percentage of ad revenues generated by carrier referral traffic (i.e. traffic coming from the carrier portal, or “deck”).

I’m a bit neutral on the topic myself. The carriers have every right to charge for what is a pretty big value add in mobile – generating traffic. If the portals feel they don’t need the traffic, let them try to survive on a 100% off deck model (as opposed to the hybrid strategy currently employed by most major mobile publisher brands). Obviously the portals value the traffic generated from their presence on the carrier deck, or they wouldn’t be there in the first place. What I do take issue to is the artificially high CPM “price floors” set by the carriers, but that’s a topic for another day.

I must (partially) disagree with Chad Stoller of Organic, who is quoted in the piece as saying that “the carriers are too busy trying to protect the money they are making now to look at the next way to make money.”  In my view the carriers are simply grabbing the money now while they can. Most agree that their walled gardens are on borrowed time, and with the open handset alliance and other initiatives, it’s only a matter of when – not if – the carriers iron grip on the mobile spigot will come loose. Until then, it’s hard to begrudge a company for leveraging their position for immediate gain, just so long as the long term prospects are not jeopardized.

Long term, the carriers face a bleak scenario anyway – one of the dreaded “dumb pipe” syndrome (ad integrated location data notwithstanding). But let’s face it, that’s really what they are… they’ve just been damn good at pretending they’re providing value in other business value chains (media, entertainment, commerce) for the purposes of immediate revenue streams.

And for those that are willing to do some digging…  quality off-deck inventory is available for way less than the $50 CPM often quoted in the industry press.