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What would you do if you were sitting on a really big (possibly the biggest) pile of data on the mobile marketing & advertising industry? 

Analyze it, of course – and publish an insights report to spread the word!

Now, in the past year and a half wikimobidex.org has grown into the world’s largest web-based index of mobile marketing & advertising firms, with hundreds of listed companies generating tens of thousands of monthly site visits. 

With all of this B2B traffic and industry representation, the site in many ways is a near proxy for the mobile marketing industry itself – and an analysis of the wiki’s site metrics can yield powerful  insights about the mobile marketing industry proper, as well as the companies driving these trends.

And, while it would be neat to see if traffic patterns on the wiki confirmed the general marketplace trends that we are witnessing each and every day in the mobile space – trends like the explosive growth of the app economy, or the rise of the mobile web (yes, the report does a good job of charting and confirming what we think we already know).  What would be far more interesting if we could use the analysis to make actionable predictions about what will occur in the near future – and not on a general, macro scale – but with respect to specific companies listed in the wiki.

Now, what if I told you that this report could identify specific companies that were likely to be on the verge of becoming acquired?  Or were about to raise significant investment, launch a big new product, partnership, or would soon be entering a legal quagmire?   Would that be something you might be interested in?

Well that’s exactly what this report intends to do.  The methodology is simple enough:  First compile a list of the most trafficked company pages on the wiki in a given period… let’s say, a month.  Then, compare that list to the previous month’s traffic, and isolate any company whose page jumped ten or more positions month over month. 

Still following?  Good, because this is where things get interesting.  Now, we’ve found that there are three basic reasons why traffic to a company page jumps ten or more places in the wiki a given month:  Either some sort of investment activity has occurred regarding the company in question; the company launched a new product, partnership or other initiative; or it was involved in some sort of legal action – all within the month the traffic spike occured.

But what if, after extensive research, no explanation can be found for the sudden rise in popularity of a particular company’s wiki page?  No investments, product launches, or other significant events occurred in the month.  What if the sudden rise in page popularity was a precursor for the companies in question to experience such events?   Perhaps the industry knew something that wasn’t yet publically announced… and this pre-market knowledge was being manifested in the traffic patterns of wiki itself. 

To validate this theory we conducted an analysis of the July traffic on wikimobidex.org, and identified 18 company pages that jumped 10 or more places in site rank, month-over-month (we dubbed these company pages “High Jumpers”).   It seems that 9 of these companies had been quite busy that month: 2 were acquired, 1 had announced the raising of additional capital, while 6 launched significant new products or other initiatives (details of these events can be found in the report itself). 

That left 9 with no explanation for their sudden rise in popularity (we’ve dubbed these companies “Companies to Watch,” and watch them we did).  In the immediate period following the study, 6 of the 9 “Companies to Watch” launched significant new products, partnerships, or other initiatives.  Additionally, at least 2 of these companies were also found to be in the advanced stages of raising additional capital – although since neither publically announced their investment-raising efforts we cannot go into further detail at this time!

Now, obviously mobile is a very dynamic space and this type of activity should be expected for many of the companies listed at wikimobidex.org.  Still, while some companies on the July “Top 40” list not identified as “Companies to Watch” also experienced significant events following the period measured, when viewed in aggregate this group did not demonstrate nearly the same level of activity as the “Companies to Watch.”  Clearly, we’re on to something here…

So, what follows is the first of what we hope will be many “Wikimobidex Insights Reports,” which will identify and chart the progress of these mobile “Companies to Watch.”  Companies that we believe are on the verge of something big.   Check out the complete report, and let us know what you think! 

Oh, and for those of you that just gotta know, below are the top “Companies to Watch” as identified by the December Wikimobidex Insights Report.

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Watch List for December 2010: 

1.     Mobile Fringe.   iPhone and Blackberry app developer and member of the July 2010 watch list jumped eleven (11) spots in the last month without significant activity observed  in the period.  Increase possibly due to the increasing interest around mobile apps (see Rhomobile, also on the December watch list), although not all mobile app makers listed in the wiki have experienced a similar lift in page traffic.

2,3   Mobiweb and MobiDirectory. Bucking the mobile app trend the Scottsdale, Arizona mobile web developer and SEO firm Mobiweb jumped nineteen (19) spots, while its MobiDirectory unit jumped 25 spots month-over-month– both without significant activity observed in the period.

4.     Rhomobile.  The second mobile app developer on the watch list, Rhomobile jumped thirteen (13) spots without significant activity observed in the period.

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Now click here to check out the complete report!

Open Source Meets Mobile Marketing

I wanted to let you all in on a little side project that I’ve been working on, and was hoping you’d embrace it for the good of our industry.

The site is called wikimobipedia.org, and it’s basically a public wiki where mobile marketing buyers can easily collect the info they need (case studies, contact info, audience comps, etc) to begin their planning process.With our space moving so fast I felt the industry would benefit from a place that “keeps up with mobile (so you don’t have to)”, and so far things have been going pretty well.

So far I’ve got most of the major mobile players involved – over 50 companies – in less than a month (see list below for Beta launch partners).I’ve begun to spread the word, but I need all of your help to give the project some legs – as wiki’s only thrive after achieving scale.  Anything you can do – add a link to your blog roll, write a feature / re-post this on your blog, start deep linking to company pages when referencing companies in the wiki – anything will be of help…I think the mobile industry as a whole would really benefit.

List of Wikimobipedia [dot] org Beta Partners (as of 6.23.09): 2ergo, 4info, 5Th Finger, Access Mobile, AccuWeather, AdMob, Addictive Mobility, Amethon Solutions, Augme, ChaCha, Cielo Mobile, CNN, ComScore, Crisp Wireless, FOX Business Mobile, FOX News Mobile, Greystripe, Hands-On Mobile, Inc., HipCricket, IVdopia, InsightExpress, Ipsh, Jumptap, Millennial Media, MoVoxx, Mobile Marketing Association, Mobile Posse, Mojiva, Movoxx, Myxer, Nokia Interactive Advertising, , Nokia Point & Find, NPR, Phluant Mobile, PointRoll, Quattro Wireless, Ringleader Digital, Scanbuy, ShopText, SinglePoint, The Weather Channel Mobile, Thumbplay, Transpera, Useful Networks, Vibes Media, Washington Post Digital, Waterfall Mobile and WeatherBug.

Verizon, FOX Take on Additional Sales Partners as US Mobile Ad Inventory Glut Continues.

Millennial Media recently announced an agreement with Verizon Wireless which allows the ad network to begin selling a portion of the carrier’s on deck mobile ad inventory. Prior to this move, AOL’s Third Screen Media was the only third party repping Verizon Wireless inventory. It is believed that Third Screen will continue to sell a portion of Verizon’s on deck ad inventory as well as act as the carrier’s primary ad server.

In a similar move, Cambridge, Massachusetts-based mobile ad network (and white-label search provider) JumpTap announced that had signed deals to sell the mobile ad inventory of both NBC Universal and FOX’s Mobile Entertainment Network (which includes Jamba, as well as mobile extensions of FOX programs such as Family Guy and 24). Millennial Media currently is FOX’s exclusive third party sales partner for all FIM mobile sites, such as mySpace mobile, FOX Sports and rottentomatoes.com.

All these moves would be enough to drive media planners crazy, if only they were paying attention – and therein lies the heart of problem. With well more than half of mobile ad inventory going unsold over any given period, its no wonder publishers are feeling a little antsy about the ability of their sales partners to close the deal. And why aren’t buyers buying? That’s really the question, and we’ve a hunch the publishers wont find relief simply be adding additional sales partners.

For our friends on the supply side of the mobile advertising market, we offer the following advice:

1. First, you must accept that you are selling a niche media product – a situation that probably will continue for the next three years at a minimum. This means stop with the “reach story.” Stop telling buyers that “over 250 million US consumers own mobile phones” and start with a more sophisticated segmentation strategy that tells buyers that you can efficiently deliver a specific audience against their specific needs. You’ve already got a solid out-of-home story, but why not do what the niche cable nets and magazines do – start by investing in some real research that shows how your audience indexes against specific product categories (MRI would be a good start).
2. Second, try really experimenting with pricing models other than CPM. Sure, AdMob and a few others have brought text-based CPC inventory to market, but what about getting bold and offering up display-based CPC inventory as well? This will do much to alleviate the inherent risk that buyers must accept in your untested and unproven form of media, and with most of your impressions going unsold month after month you have very little to lose. What’s more, if we’re to believe that mobile click-thrus are really averaging over 2%, then surely you wouldn’t mind putting your numbers on the line with a model that pays out based on campaign performance?
3. Finally, get togther with each other and figure out a way to track uniques across all publishers, ad networks and carriers. Without this, there is no way your media fits into an (even soft) reach/frequency model – the backbone of modern media planning. Saddle up and get it together. You can’t blame media buyers for this one…

Of course, blame cannot be lopped only on the supply side of the equation. Our friends on the buying side have their work cut out for them as well:

1. Stop complaining about the “unattractiveness” of existing mobile ad units. Sure, mobile banners are small – but that’s not the point. When viewed as a percentage of the screen they actually are quite reasonably-sized. Hold your phone up to your face (as one does when one browses the mobile web) and it will take on the prominence of a 65″ plasma. Unfortunately mobile is just too new a medium to start messing about with seriously interruptive forms of advertising. Waiting for Verizon to approve that full screen “roadblock” ad unit? Don’t hold your breath.
2. Take the time to understand what’s really out there. Shaken by rumors of $50 mobile CPMs? You might be surprised to learn that quality mobile display inventory can be had for under $5. Still not happy with mobile ad banners? Well, folks like Greystripe have full screen units for sale, and there are plenty of content integration options with the likes of Buzzd, UpSnap and Free-411. These guys are simply dying to meet you and tell you about what they’re got for sale, so do everyone a favor and put aside 30 minutes a week to meet with them. Get smart on the mobile publishing side and your clients may just reward you.
3. Finally, challenge the publishers and ad networks to craft real solutions to your clients business objectives. This means sharing (some) information on what you’re trying to accomplish on the media side in terms of strategy, reach and intended action. Too often media salespersons are simply left guessing as to what value their product can add a larger media plan. Is it any wonder they often fall short? I know from experience that these media sales people are a very creative, sharp and hardworking sort. Give them the information they need to succeed and they just might surprise you with a program that makes you both look like rock stars.

We don’t pretend to have all the answers, but we’re more than comfortable with the concept that the more things stay the same, the more mobile advertising will stagnate.

Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment and continue the conversation.