mobilestance.com

What would you do if you were sitting on a really big (possibly the biggest) pile of data on the mobile marketing & advertising industry? 

Analyze it, of course – and publish an insights report to spread the word!

Now, in the past year and a half wikimobidex.org has grown into the world’s largest web-based index of mobile marketing & advertising firms, with hundreds of listed companies generating tens of thousands of monthly site visits. 

With all of this B2B traffic and industry representation, the site in many ways is a near proxy for the mobile marketing industry itself – and an analysis of the wiki’s site metrics can yield powerful  insights about the mobile marketing industry proper, as well as the companies driving these trends.

And, while it would be neat to see if traffic patterns on the wiki confirmed the general marketplace trends that we are witnessing each and every day in the mobile space – trends like the explosive growth of the app economy, or the rise of the mobile web (yes, the report does a good job of charting and confirming what we think we already know).  What would be far more interesting if we could use the analysis to make actionable predictions about what will occur in the near future – and not on a general, macro scale – but with respect to specific companies listed in the wiki.

Now, what if I told you that this report could identify specific companies that were likely to be on the verge of becoming acquired?  Or were about to raise significant investment, launch a big new product, partnership, or would soon be entering a legal quagmire?   Would that be something you might be interested in?

Well that’s exactly what this report intends to do.  The methodology is simple enough:  First compile a list of the most trafficked company pages on the wiki in a given period… let’s say, a month.  Then, compare that list to the previous month’s traffic, and isolate any company whose page jumped ten or more positions month over month. 

Still following?  Good, because this is where things get interesting.  Now, we’ve found that there are three basic reasons why traffic to a company page jumps ten or more places in the wiki a given month:  Either some sort of investment activity has occurred regarding the company in question; the company launched a new product, partnership or other initiative; or it was involved in some sort of legal action – all within the month the traffic spike occured.

But what if, after extensive research, no explanation can be found for the sudden rise in popularity of a particular company’s wiki page?  No investments, product launches, or other significant events occurred in the month.  What if the sudden rise in page popularity was a precursor for the companies in question to experience such events?   Perhaps the industry knew something that wasn’t yet publically announced… and this pre-market knowledge was being manifested in the traffic patterns of wiki itself. 

To validate this theory we conducted an analysis of the July traffic on wikimobidex.org, and identified 18 company pages that jumped 10 or more places in site rank, month-over-month (we dubbed these company pages “High Jumpers”).   It seems that 9 of these companies had been quite busy that month: 2 were acquired, 1 had announced the raising of additional capital, while 6 launched significant new products or other initiatives (details of these events can be found in the report itself). 

That left 9 with no explanation for their sudden rise in popularity (we’ve dubbed these companies “Companies to Watch,” and watch them we did).  In the immediate period following the study, 6 of the 9 “Companies to Watch” launched significant new products, partnerships, or other initiatives.  Additionally, at least 2 of these companies were also found to be in the advanced stages of raising additional capital – although since neither publically announced their investment-raising efforts we cannot go into further detail at this time!

Now, obviously mobile is a very dynamic space and this type of activity should be expected for many of the companies listed at wikimobidex.org.  Still, while some companies on the July “Top 40” list not identified as “Companies to Watch” also experienced significant events following the period measured, when viewed in aggregate this group did not demonstrate nearly the same level of activity as the “Companies to Watch.”  Clearly, we’re on to something here…

So, what follows is the first of what we hope will be many “Wikimobidex Insights Reports,” which will identify and chart the progress of these mobile “Companies to Watch.”  Companies that we believe are on the verge of something big.   Check out the complete report, and let us know what you think! 

Oh, and for those of you that just gotta know, below are the top “Companies to Watch” as identified by the December Wikimobidex Insights Report.

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Watch List for December 2010: 

1.     Mobile Fringe.   iPhone and Blackberry app developer and member of the July 2010 watch list jumped eleven (11) spots in the last month without significant activity observed  in the period.  Increase possibly due to the increasing interest around mobile apps (see Rhomobile, also on the December watch list), although not all mobile app makers listed in the wiki have experienced a similar lift in page traffic.

2,3   Mobiweb and MobiDirectory. Bucking the mobile app trend the Scottsdale, Arizona mobile web developer and SEO firm Mobiweb jumped nineteen (19) spots, while its MobiDirectory unit jumped 25 spots month-over-month– both without significant activity observed in the period.

4.     Rhomobile.  The second mobile app developer on the watch list, Rhomobile jumped thirteen (13) spots without significant activity observed in the period.

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Now click here to check out the complete report!

Open Source Meets Mobile Marketing

I wanted to let you all in on a little side project that I’ve been working on, and was hoping you’d embrace it for the good of our industry.

The site is called wikimobipedia.org, and it’s basically a public wiki where mobile marketing buyers can easily collect the info they need (case studies, contact info, audience comps, etc) to begin their planning process.With our space moving so fast I felt the industry would benefit from a place that “keeps up with mobile (so you don’t have to)”, and so far things have been going pretty well.

So far I’ve got most of the major mobile players involved – over 50 companies – in less than a month (see list below for Beta launch partners).I’ve begun to spread the word, but I need all of your help to give the project some legs – as wiki’s only thrive after achieving scale.  Anything you can do – add a link to your blog roll, write a feature / re-post this on your blog, start deep linking to company pages when referencing companies in the wiki – anything will be of help…I think the mobile industry as a whole would really benefit.

List of Wikimobipedia [dot] org Beta Partners (as of 6.23.09): 2ergo, 4info, 5Th Finger, Access Mobile, AccuWeather, AdMob, Addictive Mobility, Amethon Solutions, Augme, ChaCha, Cielo Mobile, CNN, ComScore, Crisp Wireless, FOX Business Mobile, FOX News Mobile, Greystripe, Hands-On Mobile, Inc., HipCricket, IVdopia, InsightExpress, Ipsh, Jumptap, Millennial Media, MoVoxx, Mobile Marketing Association, Mobile Posse, Mojiva, Movoxx, Myxer, Nokia Interactive Advertising, , Nokia Point & Find, NPR, Phluant Mobile, PointRoll, Quattro Wireless, Ringleader Digital, Scanbuy, ShopText, SinglePoint, The Weather Channel Mobile, Thumbplay, Transpera, Useful Networks, Vibes Media, Washington Post Digital, Waterfall Mobile and WeatherBug.

A New Twist on a Familiar Tale.

Agencies are often confronted with a common challenge when drafting a mobile advertising plan: Should they go to the mobile ad networks, or should they attempt negotiate directly with the individual mobile publishers? Both have significant advantages and limitations that Agencies would be wise to keep in mind when planning and executing their mobile marketing plans.

Mobile Ad Networks. As mobile often commands a relatively small percentage of an advertising budget, most agencies do not usually have the internal resources to plan and negotiate sophisticated mobile advertising plans on a publisher by publisher basis. This challenge is compounded by the relative inefficiency of the mobile advertising marketplace. Overwhelming manual, most mobile RFP processes are just beginning to become formalized – and even when established, usually require the agency to juggle multiple phone calls and emails to each individual publisher in a plan.

That said agencies look to mobile ad networks, such as AOL’s Third Screen Media, Ringleader Digital, AdMob or Millennial Media to streamline this process. By aggregating and bringing to market large tracts of mobile ad inventory, Mobile ad networks play a highly important role in the mobile advertising ecosystem. However, while these networks greatly simplify the process of mobile advertising planning and buying for the agency, Media Buyers cannot rely on the networks alone to provide objective media planning services, as the two often have conflicting interests.

This is because while both ad networks and individual publishers share the goal of extracting the highest price for their advertising inventory that the market will bear, ad networks are also faced with the daunting task of satisfying a large network of highly dissimilar mobile publishers. The networks risk losing publishers to rival networks should they fail to sell a certain percentage of each publisher’s inventory. This creates a potential conflict of interest between the network recommending the most targeted and effective inventory, versus recommending inventory solely on the basis of appeasing their publisher base.

Buying Direct. While more time consuming, Agencies negotiating media plans directly with individual mobile publishers can also reap tremendous dividends for their clients. As is the case with online media planning, individual mobile publishers such as The Weather Channel, ESPN and The New York Times often provide a much higher level of integration than that offered the ad networks, including access to exclusive editorial content, custom promotional programs, as well as highly integrated, cross media campaigns.

It should be noted that a common misperception is that “buying direct” from individual publishers automatically results in huge price advantages (versus purchasing mobile ad inventory through an intermediary such as a mobile ad network). In fact there is should be no price advantage in either model, as publishers must “sell” their advertising inventory to ad networks (for resale) at significantly discounted rates versus those found on the open market. Furthermore, considerable market pressures encourage mobile publishers to establish identical price floors for both their internal sales forces as well as any external sales channels, such as mobile ad networks and other resellers.

Recommendations. Obviously both the Mobile Ad Networks and the Individual Mobile Publishers play important yet highly differentiated roles in the mobile advertising value chain – with the networks providing the broadest reach, while the individual publishers providing increased promotional and mobile content integration.

Clearly then, best practices dictate that agencies should utilize both Mobile Ad Networks and individual mobile publishers in the planning and execution of mobile advertising plans. Agencies must cultivate relationships with key mobile portals if they are to bring innovative integrated mobile advertising opportunities to their clients. Additionally, Agencies should also look to Mobile Ad Networks in order for their mobile campaigns to achieve desired levels of scale and reach.

That said, Agencies need to take the time to scrutinize each site recommended by the networks by respectfully requesting a rationale its inclusion. At a minimum, mobile ad networks sites should be able to provide agencies with an aggregated site demographic or content target data as justification for inclusion in a plan.